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Elon Musk· @elonmusk · X·· 9 天前AI 评分24
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人形机器人是一种改变约束条件的资本品。它延长生产,并提高劳动力和土地的产出,这就是 Elon 所指的丰裕。 一个人每年提供约 2,000 小时。一周运行 168 小时的机器人可提供约 8,700 小时。他提出的 10 年内 10 亿台、价格在一万多美元的底线,相当于约 40 亿全职等价劳动力,而全球劳动力为 35 亿。 15 年时的 100 亿台则在此基础上再提高一个数量级。 机器人制造机器人仍需要储蓄,因为能源、材料和机器必须被竞价投入那条生产线。 预期中的丰裕适用于普通需求,而这对作为消费者的人们才是重要的。住房、食物、护理和常规医疗的价格将向能源和材料成本回落,直到家庭预算不再成为限制。 一个运营数百或数千台智能体的所有者获得该资本存量的回报,这也是全民高收入以购买力形式出现的方式。 货币价格仍是分配任何仍然稀缺之物的方式,即能源、地段、原材料。至少短期内如此。 能源是约束性投入,而在多个星球定居可增加单一世界之外的土地、矿产和发电能力。 简而言之:(1) 更多能源。(2) 多星球化没有坏处。 确实如此

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Exactly

引用Rothmus 🏴@Rothmus
A humanoid is a capital good on a scale that changes the constraint. It lengthens production and raises what labor and land can turn out, which is the abundance Elon is pointing at. A person supplies about 2,000 hours a year. A robot on a 168 hour week supplies about 8,700. His floor of 1 billion within 10 years, priced in the low 10,000s, equals about 4 billion full time equivalents against a world labor force of 3.5 billion. The 10 billion at 15 years is an order of magnitude past that. Robots building robots still require saving, because energy, materials, and machines have to be bid into that line. Expected abundance holds for ordinary wants which is what matters for people as consumers. Housing, food, care, and routine medicine get repriced toward energy and materials until a household’s budget stops being what limits them. An owner running 100s or 1,000s of agents earns the return on that capital stock, which is also how universal high income shows up as purchasing power. Money prices remain the way to allocate whatever is still scarce, that is energy, locations, raw materials. At least in the short term. Energy is the binding input, and settling more than one planet adds land, minerals, and generation beyond a single world. TLDR: (1) More energy. (2) Multiplanetary doesn’t hurt.
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来源:Elon Musk · x.com