François Chollet 指出,2024 年及更早的基础 LLM 与现代 LRM 的关键区别,是从转导式直接猜答案转向归纳式预测生成答案的程序或推理链。基础 LLM 经约 100,000x 扩展后,在 ARC 1 上仅从 0% 提升到约 10-15%;同等或更小的 LRM 已于 2025 年饱和 ARC 1,并具备显著流体智力。
The critical distinction between base LLMs (2024 and earlier) and modern LRMs is not symbolic tool use. It's the switch from a transductive paradigm (intuit the answer to the query) to an inductive paradigm (intuit the program/instructions that produce the answer to the query).
They're trained to be inductive, and they perform test-time induction, i.e. test-time prediction of a NL program / reasoning chain. This unlocks entirely new capabilities -- in particular fluid intelligence. Base LLMs, to this day, have ~0 fluid intelligence. LRMs have substantial levels of fluid intelligence.
The performance of LLMs on ARC 1 (a benchmark from 2019) remains ~10-15% today. Scaling them up by a factor ~100,000x got them from 0% to 10%. Meanwhile LRMs the same size or smaller saturated ARC 1 in 2025.
来源:François Chollet · x.com