MIT诺贝尔经济学奖得主Daron Acemoglu预测,AI在未来10年内只会接管约5%的人类工作,对应GDP增长约1.5%。他认为美国约20%的简单办公与认知任务可被自动化,但十年内仅四分之一会真正实现。他以Dragon语音识别为例,指出Dragon 16宣称的99%准确率是理想条件测得,剩余1%错误足以扭曲句意。
Daron Acemoglu, the Nobel-winning MIT economist, expects AI to take over only about 5% of human work within 10 years.
He assumes simple office and cognitive tasks, about 20% of US work, can be automated, but expects only a quarter of them to be automated within a decade.
humanistreview
That implied a GDP gain of about 1.5% over 10 years.
He cites the example of the speech recognition software Dragon again and again in his article.
- "voice recognition software on PCs today is only marginally better than what was available in 2000"
Dragon 16 claimed 99% accuracy, measured under ideal conditions. That last 1% can flip a sentence's meaning, cause a command to be misread, or force you to proofread every email.
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来源:Rohan Paul · x.com